Another market that seems to be cratering is Dallas, where sales volume is down 11% year-over-year in June and inventory is up 23%: https://www.dallasnews.com/business/real-estate/2019/07/17/dallas-rockwall-counties-biggest-june-home-sales-declines. I have got a special circumstance rental situation that is dirt cheap and just right for me. The north bay has some interesting dynamics. This time is different for SoCal atleast and prices would never go down as we are special. I have been researching beach property in southern N. Carolina. Despite the rampant indoorification of outdoor dining. What about T2 cities like Raleigh-Durham? In SoCal, we also have OC, SD, Ventura, Riverside, and San Bernadino. In all other major regions, median prices of single-family houses (SFH) and condos rose in September compared to a year ago. On a 4-month rolling basis, SF median house sales prices are as high as they’ve ever been. I’m pretty outdoorsy and trying to live close to UTC so I can get back into surfing. Interesting about the condo v. SFR prices, in my past life as an appraiser falling condo prices were the canary in the coalmine- the weakest link breaking first and winnowing the pool of move up buyers, ultimately showing up in SFR figures. So anything that kicks the can down the road several years (average about 69 months) is their strategy. Its said that after the 1906 SF earthquake many property owners set fire to their houses and businesses in hopes their fire insurance would cover the pile of rubble that had been their home! This left the median price flat year-over-year and down 7.0% from the peak in June 2018 and back where it had first been in November 2017. Using ad blockers – I totally get why – but want to support the site? He has seen booms and bursts come and go but continues the say the same thing. We may see drops but we return stronger consistently. Massive tech layoffs with higher interest rate = 50% drop. California has been blessed with the most amazing and diverse natural wonders anywhere . I doubt european cities have a better infrastructure than san diego in general, I can drive in 20min anywhere I want here, unless you are dreaming of public transport with crowded trains and people smelling each other arm pits in the early morning hours, that is not an american lifestyle. As far as buying a 1M+ home in California … only in a handful of zip codes would it be smart to purchase any home in California right now. Except this is how Warren Buffett makes a lot of money; buying up mobile home parks and jacking the rent ‘way up. I don’t agree with most of what you say but want to comment on one part. Consumers I wouldn’t mind seeing that before I die as well. I call it the Burning Man effect. Saying that this is natural is like saying corruption, poverty, and concentration of wealth is natural. If you value peace of mind/sleeping sound at night not thinking about paying the rent/mortgage/paying bills then you may enjoy India. Also rising HOA fees adversely affect value, as my late mother learned the hard way. Energy The luxury market in particular has flourished. 1. Then, they bet that the mortgages would not be repaid. I think one of the most attractive options out there for older people who can make a cash purchase are used manufactured homes. If the President get his way and weakens the dollar, Chinese repo rate just skyrocketed to % 1000. Reply. But in 5 big cities, rents jumped by 20%+. Their down payment highly relies on the stock market, but once the stock market … Of course union construction labor is used. In Contra Costa County, the median house price ticked up 0.9% in September compared to a year ago, to $656,000 but was down 6.6% from the peak in June 2018 and is now back where it had first been in May 2017. Means you can afford more reverse osmosis plants for pools and golf courses, and not have to tap the Sacramento so far up river because getting it’s too salty for y’all. The 12-month moving average (red line in the chart below), by definition, lags behind but shows longer-term trends more clearly. Condo +11.1% ($220,000), Inland Empire: SFH +4.6% ($385,000). That is a reference to Powell’s about-face in the beginning of this year in which he went from rate hikes/balance sheet normalization “on autopilot” to accommodative dove as the stock market tanked. The government should recover such transfers to the bankster control groups from such insolvent banks, because legally they are fraudulent transfers. The higher-end SC beach communities (Kiawah, Isle of Palms) are not doing very well. But new businesses with planned wages have been getting scarcer since 2007. Enjoy your stay, and please, when/if you have kids, don’t have them or raise them here; it’s child cruelty. Unfortunately people realize this and have resulted in the state being vastly overpopulated at almost 40m. The GDP from Southern California is much larger than the GDP from Northern California. Housing starts are UP! Cars, Trucks & Crashes https://wolfstreet.com/2019/04/14/whatll-happen-to-home-prices-in-silicon-valley-san-francisco-after-the-mega-ipos-last-two-times-we-got-a-housing-bust/. Many of them are years away or may never get built. SF is a US city in the Boston, Houston, and Philly league. It was quite interesting…as interesting as all (ALL) the forecasts that a left wing govt (called socialist) would drive the economy into the ground….that they couldn’t run a peanut stand….and yet they just announced yesterday a 1.4 billion dollar budget surplus forecast for the year. The artists took over all the empty industrial spaces, then the cool but broke people followed, then the developers showed up. pfEn54 Mar 11 114 Comments Bookmark; function; Placed offer on house and got into contract end of last month and now With the current crisis going on with COVID-19 should I just back out and wait out few months until housing gets impacted and buy low. Ownership is not for everyone, you can always rent. Read… Unlike you like NUDE NUDES. The Bay Area sticks out like sore thumb: The Bay Area is vast: Nine counties spread around a series of bays, of which the “San Francisco Bay” is only one. I read an article about a Haitian neighborhood built on higher ground inland from the glamorous Miami Beach ocean view condos. :), I live in Charleston, SC where much of the old city is below sea level. 1.Prices of most things except real estate taxes( New Jersey takes the cake on that one) are among the most expensive on the country . Buying in the US is easy for Canadians, so get ready to be priced out by yet another group. If June was the seasonal peak in prices, the housing market might face an iffy summer and winter as potential sellers are apparently running out of willing and able buyers at these prices. Prices way too high for even well-off normal people to buy. Some tech money getting out at the peak and retiring in wine country also in the mix. What’s wrong with 10-30 acres of vinyard? Banks’ actual, realizable capital is like an onion skin covering their liabilities: e.g., sums owed to depositors (bank deposits) and expected losses on $200 trillion in essentially gambling bets on derivatives. Exactly. Yes, seasonally, we’re now looking at the downhill side of the curve through the winter. And condo prices fell 3%. Gold & Silver I suppose it depends what cities you include. The Valley is also seeing a very strong market. Indeed, probably not a real boom in Napa of any sort. So yes, it’s far bigger than the Bay Area, but the Bay Area is not THAT small. Anybody who can get out will. There hasn’t been any shortage of crash predictions for many years now. Homelessness is rampart with stories being featured on the local tv stations on almost a daily basis. The median price of house sales that closed in June dropped 8.1% compared to June last year, which put it back on the same level as June two years ago: Sales volume of houses in the SF Bay Area fell 9% in June compared to a year ago. Bought by Unicorn Developer for $5 M. New CA Property tax rate above $50,000 / yr. This is no longer the case in the Bay Area, so high prices are tamping down on demand. Very strong. released today. The NASDAQ at about 2000 is still only 40% of the 5000 it was at the peak of the recent stock market bubble. See https://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/article24561376.html, which is the article entitled “How Goldman secretly bet on the U.S. housing crash”. They buy up land from their cronies at unbelievable prices and build mixed use developments. On Tuesday, November 3, 2020, the last piece will be pulled. An earthquake is a different sort of animal. Consumers How much change would make BC less habitable? Here are some real examples of people soliciting room mates in San Diego. So this situation is not a sudden collapse or anything, but clearly, the Bay Area’s Housing Bubble 2 has lost its mojo. Not flood zone at least. Discussion re SD and India were noteworthy. does surpass 51,000 housing starts this year that not only would be a “very strong number,” it would be astonishing and extraordinary. 1) You are stupid to hold cash The banks will come back and demand another trillion dollar bail out, by panicking the US congress (with the understandable, sudden declines in the stock market, because the banks’ stocks will be recognized as worthless by investors) with the connivance of bankster treasury secretaries and corrupt politicians. You are stupid to not go out on the risk curve with bonds You are stupid if you don’t leverage up on real estate I rented from a building in Queens, NY near La Guardia Airport that owners from Hong Kong have never been to according to their manager. My buddy just lost another bid in Glenn Park. Unfortunately for more developed nations that means a decrease for the large majority of the population. > I sure would enjoy seeing Cramer have another melt down before I die. Trade As far as per capita, who cares. People fail to realize how onerous property taxes can be. Just a bunch of tech dudes. See our, end of the housing bubble in Sonoma County, Apartment Rents Fall in Seattle, Southern California, New York, Oakland, San Jose, Chicago, Honolulu, ← US Home Purchases by Chinese, Other Foreigners Plunge Below 2012 Level. https://www.sellingsiliconvalley.tv/ Want MORE Data? What this means is people have done the rent vs. buy calc with the new tax law and a flood of renters are causing rents to jump. If you want growth in assets you have to use stocks or something else. Cars, Trucks & Crashes South Beach. Nothing is different this time. Traffic is unbelievable during rush hours in the Bay Area. EddieR says. Oh, ZipVan is good for smaller loads too. In Santa Clara County, the southern part of Silicon Valley and the most populous county in the Bay Area, the median house price dropped 2.0% year-over-year, to $1.22 million, which is down 15.8% from the peak in April 2018 and just below where it had first been in October 2017. However, things picked back up in 2019, and after the lockdowns end, the spring 2020 buying season is simply going to shift to the summer. From what I see and hear however, from new doctors, accountants, tech workers and scientists, no one can even think about accruing enough of a down payment for a house here, and even if you could, the mortgage would make for a hand to mouth existence for you and your family. If there is any doubt, more 7 figure homes are sold in Southern California than Northern California. As we enter a new decade, will the Bay Area housing market soften, hold, or get more expensive? Really enjoy the commentors that are drawen by your great well researched work. Then the median price spent the next 11 months climbing down, dropping by $354,000 in the process, to $1.376 million by January 2019. If Mr. Keith Jurow is correct, the banks may have been technically insolvent. However, there has been much interest and discussion on WS about the crackdown on foreign RE buyers in Vancouver this past year. Office occupancy plunged by the most in Dallas. I’m sure that’s part of it Maybe less foreigners as well The smart money is selling for sure just like in 2006. Central Banks Do the FOREIGNERS have extra liquidity available for R.E. Think doctors, engineers, scientists, bankers ect…. Don’t delude yourself and run don’t walk to buy before you are priced out forever in SoCal. your reaching again, I grew up in Long Beach, its old money…. Years of restrictive rules leading to the current Housing affordability Crisis is really going to back and bite people (NIMBYs) in the ass when they see there is little demand left for their multimillion dollar homes. You sure they didn’t all move to Corona Del Mar when it was still a sleepy area? I am moving this weekend from the peninsula to the east bay, booked a month ago with Uhaul and found out last night that they have no 15ft trucks available in the entire bay area. Kondratieff got sent to the gulag by Stalin by studying it like hell and announcing to Stalin that capitalism won’t fail, it can just keep oscillating, booming and crashing, indefinitely. Sonoma? Getting on the real estate train was the ticket to becoming a millionaire, at least according to him. If B.C. This was the only county of the nine Bay Area counties with a year-over-year price gain. It was a long slow downward grind, until mid-2007 when the bubble really popped. Or the de facto announcement of a downturn in the economy…. That’s when I bought a house at less than half they were selling a few years back. People are priced out of Dallas and the north Dallas suburbs. Surplus, and we have no premiums on our single payer health coverage as of this year, and spending on K-12 up considerably as well as is on post secondary opportunities. In the nine-county San Francisco Bay Area, house prices – as measured by the median price where half of the houses sold for more and half sold for less – dropped 5.4% in September compared to September last year, to $880,000, according to the final data by the California Association of Realtors (C.A.R.) 6. The scenario you describe, has never happened, won’t ever happen. Really hoping the speculation, rental property obsession and AirBNB that has sequesterEd much of the inventory from local workers and families dies down and one day prices come in alignment with (even high paying) tech incomes. Californians saved themselves with prop 13. The adjacent beaches such as Half Moon Bay can be breathtaking , but the ocean water is cold as hell. Shenanigans Maybe they are part of the 1 percent. Not a complaint, awesome work by Wolf. It is the same problem as with market cap – the marginal moron/manipulator gets his valuation opinion inappropriately scaled up. Its back to basics there. Or the cost of real estate in Japan? LA is a world class city in the same league as London, Tokyo, NYC, …. Even then, historically, they will either level out or continue their upward progression. Nortel, IBM, Ericcson, Redhat (now IBM), Cisco, etc etc. Lived in rural towns my whole life and the real estate dynamics are different since appreciation over a full real estate cycle is basically the inflation rate, maybe less if population is shrinking. A crap shack in Toronto or Vancouver going for 1M is considered a bargain in Canada. Federal Reserve Nothing. It don’t look like much of a trend change yet from where I’m standing in the Silicon Cleavage. I hope that’s sarcasm Buy gold and buy property after the bubble pops completely with the profits from the gold IMO. Read… Apartment Rents Fall in Seattle, Southern California, New York, Oakland, San Jose, Chicago, Honolulu. It cost something like $200 to take a Uhaul from Las Vegas to the Bay area but cost $2,000 to rent in the other direction due to lack of supply. I live on Sarasota Bay today and I’m on the waters edge if 4 floors up. Enjoy reading WOLF STREET and want to support it? Better to have slow, polluting, winding traffic snake through city streets than a fast and efficient highway connection it seems they think. High-end luxury real estate has seen a very strong demand in virtually every housing market in the entire Bay Area.
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